José Ataide


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Vitória reduz para 7,8% chance de rebaixamento ao fim da 26ª rodada; veja probabilidades

Após quatro derrotas consecutivas na temporada, somando as derrotas no Ba-Vi e a eliminação na Copa do Brasil, o Vitória recuperou a moral e ganhou fôlego na luta contra o rebaixamento no Campeonato Brasileiro, competição que resta ao Leão até o final da temporada. Com o 1 a 0 sobre o Grêmio, na última segunda-feira (7), no Barradão, pela 26ª rodada, o Leão chegou aos 32 pontos, subiu para a 11ª colocação e viu as chances de rebaixamento caírem para 7,8%.

De acordo com os cálculos do Departamento de Matemática da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), o Vitória aparece no momento como o oitavo time com maiores chances de ser rebaixado para a Série B. O resultado positivo diante do Grêmio permitiu ao Rubro-Negro abrir sete pontos de vantagem para o Vasco, primeiro time dentro da zona de rebaixamento, com 25 pontos.

Entre os clubes que brigam contra o rebaixamento, o Vitória tem menos chances de queda que Chapecoense (97,5%), Remo (83,4%), Internacional (73,4%), Vasco (59,9%), Grêmio (26,8%), Mirassol (26%) e Corinthians (9%) na projeção da UFMG.

Atualmente, o Z-4 da Série A é formado por Vasco, com 25 pontos, Internacional, também com 25, Remo, com 23, e Chapecoense, com 17.

Foto: Reprodução/UFMG

JOGOS A MENOS

Atrás do Leão na tabela, Santos, Botafogo, Grêmio e Vasco ainda têm um jogo a menos. O Santos é o 12º colocado, com 32 pontos, enquanto o Botafogo aparece em 13º, com 31. O Grêmio está na 15ª posição, com 28, e o Vasco ocupa o 17º lugar, com 25 pontos.

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bahianoticias

Agora, o Leão, que volta a campo neste domingo (13), contra o Mirassol, no Estádio Maião, pela 27ª rodada, busca a primeira vitória fora de casa na competição. A equipe terá 12 rodadas pela frente para confirmar a permanência na elite nacional.

A sequência do Vitória como mandante terá Cruzeiro, Chapecoense, Athletico-PR, Fluminense, Red Bull Bragantino e Santos. Já longe de Salvador, o Rubro-Negro enfrentará Mirassol, São Paulo, Corinthians, Coritiba, Internacional e Vasco, que será o adversário da última rodada do Brasileirão.

OLHO NA ‘SULA’

Além da luta para se afastar definitivamente da parte de baixo da tabela, o Vitória aparece com possibilidade de disputar uma competição continental na próxima temporada.

Segundo a projeção da UFMG, o Leão tem 38,6% de chance de conquistar uma vaga na Copa Sul-Americana, que, no cenário atual, contempla do sexto ao 11º colocado. O Vitória está justamente na 11ª posição e, portanto, dentro da faixa de classificação projetada neste momento.

A equipe está a 11 pontos do Bahia, quinto colocado e, no cenário atual, último clube dentro da zona de classificação para a Libertadores. Na projeção da UFMG, o Vitória aparece em nono lugar entre os times com maior probabilidade de disputar a Sul-Americana.